A to Z Bayes - Part 1: The Basics

Let's ExperimentURL copied

Step 5: Profit $$URL copied

Firstly, the probability of me choosing fewer faced dice is an absolute 0, which aligns with our intuition like we have shown above and the scientific method.
We still can't deny the fact that I have used a 373-faced dice since the posterior probability is non-zero. Using the bayesian approach we presupposed that such a dice, firstly, is a rare occurance and secondly, has lower likelihood compared to a fewer faced dice. However, we calculated that the posterior probability of a 373-faced dice is miniscule compared to other hypotheses. This asserts that such a dice usage is far rare if not impossible. Bottom line is that we can idiot proof our arguments by not getting confused between a probable hypothesis with an extremely uncommon hypothesis.

Now can you see why evolution deniers are wrong?